Paul Muthaura: Why Kenya must turn investor interest into real deals

The September 9–10 summit in Nairobi will bring together senior government officials, American investors and business leaders, with President William Ruto expected as chief guest.

The event builds on more than $2 billion (Sh258.9 billion) in investment commitments and grants associated with previous editions and comes as Kenya seeks to attract capital into agriculture, digital technology, energy and infrastructure, manufacturing, healthcare, critical minerals and the creative economy.

The Star spoke to Paul Muthaura, chief executive of AmCham Kenya, about his new mandate, investor confidence, Kenya’s competitiveness and opportunities to deepen trade and investment ties with the United States.

You have moved from regulation, insurance and carbon markets into business advocacy. What key issues could unlock greater investment in Kenya?

Having worked across regulation, insurance and carbon markets, I have seen Kenya’s investment environment from several vantage points. One thing is consistently clear: before creating new advantages, we must strengthen the fundamentals investors already value.

Predictability tops that list, particularly around tax and regulatory policy. Investors can strategise and work within a challenging environment if they trust that the rules will hold. What frustrates planning and commitment is unpredictability.

Kenya also needs to position itself not merely as a market, but as a gateway to the region and a platform for global value chains, particularly in critical minerals, digital technology, manufacturing and agriculture.

That is a real differentiator for US investors thinking about scale.

This is where AmCham comes in. Our role is to bridge the gap between policy and opportunity, working with government and businesses to turn investor interest into trade, investment and local economic impact. The fundamentals are already there; Kenya now needs consistency and stronger connectivity to make the most of them.

AmCham has traditionally been a strong policy voice. What would you like to do differently to ensure advocacy translates into tangible opportunities?

AmCham has built a strong reputation as a policy voice, and that work remains essential. But it is timely for us to be measured not only by the policies we influence, but by the investments, partnerships and business outcomes we help generate.That means moving deliberately from advocacy to action.

We need to be more intentional about connecting businesses with government officials, investors and potential commercial partners.

AmCham convenes some of the most influential organisations and decision-makers in the US-Kenya relationship. We can use that convening power more proactively to facilitate specific deals, partnerships and market-access opportunities rather than leaving those connections to happen incidentally.

We also need to measure and communicate our impact better. It is not enough to say we influenced a policy change. We should be able to point to what that change made possible for businesses, whether a new investment, expanded partnership or entry into a new market.

AmCham represents more than 300 companies. What are you hearing from members about opportunities and challenges in Kenya?

Our members see significant opportunities in digital technology, energy, healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing, creative industries and critical minerals.

There is also strong interest in leveraging Kenya as a gateway to wider East African and African markets. Many members do not see their operations here simply as a single-market investment. They see Kenya as a regional base.

At the same time, predictability continues to emerge as a major theme, particularly around taxation, regulation and policy consistency.

The message is not that investors are walking away from Kenya. Far from it. Kenya already has a strong investment proposition. The opportunity is to make it even more compelling by addressing these concerns and giving businesses greater confidence to invest for the long term.

Which areas should Kenya prioritise to strengthen investor confidence?

All the factors shaping investor confidence are interconnected. Taxation, regulation, the cost of doing business and the wider policy environment cannot be addressed in isolation.

If I had to start somewhere, however, it would be tax policy consistency and regulatory predictability.Investors can plan around a specific tax rate. What is much harder to plan around is a rate, or the rules behind it, that shift without sufficient notice.

Continuing to build multi-year visibility and strengthening consultation with the private sector before major changes are introduced would go a long way in strengthening confidence.

Government does not seek to tackle these issues alone, and neither can AmCham. Through collaboration with ministries, Invest Kenya and other international chambers, we have a coordinated platform to raise concerns constructively and consistently.

Which sectors have the greatest potential to attract American investment over the next five years?

I see strong potential across digital technology, energy, agriculture and agro-processing, healthcare, manufacturing, critical minerals and supply chains, as well as the creative industries.

Kenya has an opportunity to attract US investment not only to serve the domestic market but also to position itself as a gateway into the wider African market.

The greatest potential lies where US technology, capital and expertise can combine with Kenya’s talent, resources and regional reach.

In agriculture, the opportunity is to move beyond exporting raw commodities into processing, value addition and technology-enabled agriculture.

In digital technology, healthcare and energy, there is significant scope for US companies to bring technology, infrastructure and services into markets increasingly ready to absorb them.

Critical minerals present another opportunity to participate in emerging global supply chains while building local value addition instead of simply exporting unprocessed material.

We are also seeing growing interest in creative industries, including content, design and intellectual-property-driven sectors that can tap into Kenya’s young and creative talent.

Over the next five years, the ambition should go beyond trade. It should be about building deeper investment partnerships that create jobs, build local capabilities and position Kenya as a competitive regional platform for US companies seeking to scale across Africa.

Kenya is competing with Rwanda, South Africa, Egypt, Morocco and Nigeria for investment. How can it strengthen its value proposition?

Kenya remains one of the most attractive investment destinations on the continent, and I do not believe the answer lies in reinventing our value proposition. It lies in sharpening the fundamentals investors consistently tell us matter most.

Kenya has a genuine edge as a regional hub. We are not simply offering investors access to a market of roughly 55 million people. We are offering a gateway to the East African Community and, through the African Continental Free Trade Area, access to the broader continental market.

That regional reach, combined with Kenya’s talent base and its role as a logistics, technology and financial hub, is a real differentiator for investors thinking about scale.

The focus should therefore be on ensuring that the business environment matches the potential of that proposition through predictability, competitiveness and efficient connections to regional and global markets.

What would help attract more US investment into local manufacturing, processing and value addition?

This is one of the areas where Kenya has the most untapped potential.For years, we have exported raw commodities and imported finished goods, even though much of the value and many of the jobs lie in processing, manufacturing and value addition.

Take agriculture. Kenya is a major producer of tea, coffee, horticultural products and other agricultural goods, yet much of the value is captured elsewhere because we export raw or semi-processed products.

US investors can bring the technology, capital and expertise needed to change that, whether through food processing, cold-chain infrastructure or technology-enabled agriculture.

The same logic applies to manufacturing more broadly. Kenya has an industrial base, renewable energy generation capacity, port access, an educated and innovative workforce and connectivity to regional markets.

To attract more investment, predictability is critical because manufacturers make long-term capital commitments. Kenya must also continue optimising the cost of doing business, particularly power and logistics costs.

The country must invest in its skills pipeline, especially technical and vocational skills that support advanced manufacturing and processing. The movement of goods and inputs across borders must also become more efficient.

AmCham can help US companies see Kenya not simply as a market to sell into, but as a base for manufacturing for Kenya, the region and global supply chains. That is where the greatest opportunity for job creation and shared prosperity lies.

Kenya has a relatively sophisticated capital market, yet many companies still rely heavily on bank financing. What is holding back wider use of capital markets?

Kenya has one of the more sophisticated capital markets in the region, yet relatively few companies, particularly mid-sized and family-owned businesses, use it as a source of long-term capital. Most still default to bank debt even when equity or bond financing might better match their growth plans.One challenge is the comparative cost of market-based financing. Higher government borrowing rates can have a crowding-out effect, pushing up the pricing of private financing and reducing the number of companies able to access capital markets.

The second issue is cost and complexity. Listing and compliance requirements are necessary for market integrity, but they can feel disproportionately burdensome when the market is relatively small and trading volumes are inadequate to spread costs across a wider pool.

A deeper and more actively used market would give Kenyan companies greater access to long-term and patient capital, strengthening the broader investment ecosystem.

What personally motivates you in this new chapter, and what would success look like at the end of your tenure at AmCham?

What motivates me most is the belief that Kenya’s story with the United States is still being written and that AmCham has a genuine opportunity to help shape how that story unfolds.

Over my career, I have worked on the regulatory and institutional side of Kenya’s economy. What has stayed with me is how much untapped potential sits between good policy intentions and real investment outcomes.That gap is where I believe AmCham can make the biggest difference. I am motivated by the opportunity to translate policy context into economic results.

I am equally motivated by our members. This is an organisation built by companies that have chosen to bet on Kenya, in some cases for decades. They deserve an AmCham that works as hard for them as they have worked to build their businesses here.

Success will not be a single milestone. I want to help move AmCham from being a strong voice for members into a platform that actively opens doors to investment, partnerships and trade.

If, by the end of my tenure, we can point to specific investments unlocked, local capabilities built and a business environment that is more predictable and competitive than when we started, I would consider that success.

Ultimately, this is an opportunity to contribute to something bigger: a stronger and more competitive Kenya and a deeper, more mutually beneficial partnership between Kenya and the United States.