However, beneath the headline growth lies a major shift in export destinations, underscoring the challenges facing the country’s leading agricultural export amid geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts and changing consumer trends.
Latest industry data shows that Pakistan remained Kenya’s largest tea buyer, importing a record 56.47 million kilos between January and March, up by 7.22 million kilos compared to the same period last year.
The South Asian nation accounted for 39 per cent of Kenya’s total tea exports during the quarter, further cementing its position as the backbone of the country’s tea trade.
Pakistan’s growing appetite for Kenyan tea continues to be driven by strong domestic consumption.
The country does not produce tea commercially but consumes about one kilo per person annually, significantly higher than the global average of 0.79 kilos.
Kenya supplies nearly 70 per cent of Pakistan’s tea imports, a trade relationship valued at approximately $557 million (Sh72 billion) in 2024.
Industry analysts note that Pakistan has few viable alternatives capable of supplying the large volumes of black CTC tea required by its market.
Major tea brands, including Tapal and Lipton, have built their products around Kenyan tea, making the East African nation an indispensable supplier.
The strong performance in Pakistan was complemented by growth in other markets.
Exports to Egypt increased by 5.91 million kilos during the quarter, while shipments to the United Kingdom rose by 1.34 million kilos.
Yemen recorded one of the fastest growth rates, with exports surging 140 per cent to 2.64 million kilos.
Yemen’s sharp increase is partly attributed to the rerouting of regional trade through Oman and other intermediary markets as conflicts and security concerns continue to disrupt traditional Gulf shipping routes.
The changing trade patterns have created opportunities for Kenyan tea exporters to access consumers through alternative channels.
Despite the overall export growth, several traditionally important markets registered significant declines.
Sudan experienced the steepest drop, with exports plunging 69 per cent to 1.79 million kilos during the quarter.
The decline followed a trade ban imposed by Khartoum in March 2025 after Nairobi hosted leaders linked to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary group involved in Sudan’s ongoing civil war.
The diplomatic fallout effectively disrupted one of Kenya’s established tea markets, demonstrating how political tensions can quickly affect trade flows.
Jordan also recorded a sharp decline, with tea imports from Kenya falling 71 per cent to 860,000 kilos.
The drop reflects broader disruptions across Middle Eastern trade corridors as conflicts, security concerns and economic uncertainty continue to affect commerce in the region.
Rising shipping costs and logistical challenges have further complicated trade with several countries in the area.
China, meanwhile, reduced its purchases by 51 per cent to 1.22 million kilos. The Asian economic giant imports Kenyan tea primarily for blending rather than direct consumption.
As a result, demand tends to be highly price-sensitive and vulnerable to shifts in sourcing strategies.
Industry observers say China’s declining interest in bulk black CTC tea may represent a more structural challenge for Kenya rather than a temporary market fluctuation.
The export figures highlight the concentration risks facing Kenya’s tea sector.
More than 82 per cent of the country’s monthly tea exports are absorbed by just ten destinations, many of which are grappling with war, sanctions, currency pressures or broader economic stress.
This leaves exporters exposed to sudden geopolitical shocks and changing trade policies.
