Parts of western Kenya face an almost certain malaria outbreak in the coming weeks, three institutions have warned.
The warning applies to parts of the Rift Valley and western Kenya, with Kisii county showing the biggest risk.
The advisory was issued jointly by the Kenya Medical Research Institute, the Ministry of Health and the Kenya Meteorological Department.
“Malaria epidemic early prediction model outputs for Western Highlands of Kenya, including Kakamega, Kisii, and Nandi for the period April to May indicates there is a high overall risk of 100 per cent chance of malaria epidemic in Kisii, a high risk of 60 per cent chance of malaria epidemic in Nandi and a lower risk of 27.3 per cent chance of malaria epidemic in Kakamega during the forecast period,” the statement said.
The authorities said although Kakamega has a lower risk, people should still be careful.
“The additive model percentage risk is 27.3 per cent. Consequently, there is a lower risk of malaria epidemic in Kakamega in April and May,” the statement said.
The experts said the warning is based on weather conditions that favour mosquito breeding.
Recent Met reports showed rainfall increased sharply in March in all three counties. For example, Kisii recorded 514.0mm of rain in March, up from 236.5mm in February.
Temperatures also dropped slightly, creating a cooler and wetter environment where mosquitoes can survive and multiply.
These conditions increase the chances of malaria spreading in the community.
The early warning system used in the report combines weather data and disease patterns to predict possible outbreaks.
The agencies say the predictions are meant to help health officials prepare early and protect communities.
“Malaria transmission dynamics are influenced by numerous factors, including temperature, rainfall and human behaviour. Continuous monitoring and updates to the predictive models are essential for accurate assessments,” the statement said.
The advisory came days after Met predicted an unusually dry start to April, saying the dry spell could last two weeks.
Met director Edward Muriuki said the long rains will strengthen in the second half of the month, bringing heavier and more widespread showers across the country.
April is typically the peak of the long rains season.
“This means that while many areas may experience reduced rainfall at the beginning of April, conditions are expected to improve significantly in the second half of the month with increased rainfall intensity and coverage,” Muriuki said.
April is usually the wettest month during the March-April-May (MAM) season, a critical period for agriculture and water supply across Kenya.
The weatherman said the rains are driven by the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a key weather system that shifts across the equator and brings moisture into the region.
“In the country, the onset of the MAM seasonal rainfall is primarily driven by the northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This shift creates a zone of rising air over East Africa and draws in warm, moist winds that trigger widespread rainfall,” Muriuki said.
“The timing and strength of this rainfall are influenced by several global and regional weather systems, which can sometimes delay or enhance rainfall in different parts of the country.”
Despite the slow start, most parts of the country are still expected to receive near-normal rainfall by the end of April.
Regions such as the highlands east and west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and parts of the Rift Valley are likely to record near-average rainfall.
“The outlook for April indicates near-average rains are likely in the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and the Rift Valley,” the department said.
“However, some areas may experience below-average rainfall, especially in the coastal region and parts of the southeastern lowlands.”
“Above-average rainfall is expected over parts of the northeastern region, although this may be unevenly distributed.”
Even so, the forecast warns that isolated heavy storms could still occur, especially as the rains intensify later in the month.
“Occasional storms are expected during the month and some of these may be intense and associated with heavy rainfall events. These storms could occur even in areas expected to receive near-average rainfall,” the department said.
“Such events may lead to localised flooding and other weather-related disruptions, particularly in areas with poor drainage or those that have already received significant rainfall.”
The rains are expected to have mixed effects on agriculture, depending on the region.
Farmers in high rainfall areas are being warned about risks such as waterlogging, soil erosion and crop damage, especially during heavy downpours later in the month.
“Average to above-average rainfall in some regions may result in waterlogging and crop losses if proper measures are not taken. Farmers are advised to improve field drainage and adopt soil conservation practices,” the department said.
“In drier areas, particularly in the south-eastern lowlands and the coast, farmers may need to use water-saving techniques to cope with uneven rainfall distribution.”
