Johnson Sakaja has emerged as the frontrunner in the Nairobi gubernatorial race according to a newly released opinion poll by Darubini Research Firm.
The survey places Sakaja at 48 per cent support, ahead of James Gakuya who garnered 28 per cent. Babu Owino came third with 17 per cent.
Research expert Dunya Barbara attributed Sakaja’s popularity to key county initiatives including the Dishi na County programme, Nairobi CBD refurbishment, and youth empowerment projects.
According to the survey, the governor’s administration has gained support among middle-class voters due to visible development projects and employment opportunities targeting the youth, particularly within the environment and inspectorate departments where more than 6,000 youths have reportedly been engaged.
“From our research, Sakaja enjoys strong support from the middle class largely because of major projects like Dishi na County. As for Babu Owino, he commands significant support among the youth, especially university students,” said Barbara.
Meanwhile, in Kisumu County, Tom Ojienda emerged as the leading gubernatorial aspirant with 40 per cent support.
The survey found that many respondents consider Ojienda the most suitable successor to Anyang’ Nyong’o, who is serving his final term in office.
However, the poll also points to a potentially competitive succession battle within Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), particularly with Deputy Governor Mathews Owili positioning himself as the continuity candidate for the current administration’s development agenda.
The findings further suggest that internal ODM politics could significantly influence the final gubernatorial contest in Kisumu, especially amid growing interest surrounding Ruth Odinga, who received 17 per cent support in the survey.
This marks the third major survey report released by DARUBINI POLL as part of its ongoing national public opinion tracking initiative for the 2027 election cycle.
The survey was conducted between May 16 and May 19, 2026 through household face-to-face interviews across selected counties.
The survey targeted 500 Kenyan adults in every county in the analysis for the gubernatorial and senate race.
The survey targeted counties with a high urban population in order to capture varying perspectives from diverse voter groups. The counties surveyed include Nairobi, Kisumu, Kilifi, Kakamega, Nakuru, Kwale and Mombasa.
The study further revealed a growing level of political awareness among Kenyan voters, especially in urban centers where residents are closely following gubernatorial races and development records of elected leaders.
