Kenya has formally entered the October-December rainfall season, with the Kenya Meteorological Service warning of wetter-than-normal conditions in several parts of the country and releasing county-specific dates for the onset of the rains.
Acting head of the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority Edward Muriuki said rains had started in parts of 24 counties, including the Coast, western Kenya and the Rift Valley, and would continue spreading to other areas.
He said the remaining counties would receive the rains next week or the following week, with Turkana and Samburu expected to be the last to experience the onset in the third or fourth week of October.
Muriuki urged farmers to rely on detailed forecasts issued by county meteorological officials because the onset and intensity of the rains would vary across regions.
“County-specific weekly and monthly forecasts are available from the offices of respective county directors of Meteorological Services,” Muriuki said.
Rains have already started in Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok.
The Coast counties of Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu and Kilifi, as well as the Tana Delta, are also experiencing the onset.
In Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, rains are expected to begin in the first or second week of October.
Much of central Kenya and Ukambani, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Machakos, Kitui and Makueni, are expected to receive the rains next week or the week after. Kajiado, Taita Taveta and inland parts of Tana River are also included.
The Met said above-average rainfall could improve soil moisture, support land preparation and planting, regenerate pasture and improve water availability for livestock.
However, it warned that excessive rainfall could cause waterlogging, crop diseases, disruption of farm operations and difficulties transporting agricultural produce.
The agency expects particularly heavy rainfall in parts of the Coast and northeastern Kenya, including Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera, as well as parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir.
Other areas expected to receive above-average rainfall include Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua, Nyeri and parts of Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok.
Muriuki said temperatures would also remain warmer than average across the country.
The October-December season is influenced by several climate systems, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which measures differences in sea temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
The World Meteorological Organisation expects a positive IOD to develop during the September-November period alongside strengthening El Niño conditions.
Muriuki cautioned against treating El Niño as the sole determinant of rainfall.
“Rainfall is influenced by several climate systems, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole,” he said.
The rains are expected to continue into January in many central, western and eastern counties. In Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, the season is expected to end in the first or second week of December.
Turkana and Samburu are expected to record poor to fair rainfall despite the wider wetter-than-normal outlook.
The Met warned of possible flooding, waterlogging and landslides, advising residents in low-lying areas and near rivers to take the forecast seriously.
