A majority of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) supporters would prefer Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna to carry the party’s presidential flag in the 2027 general election, according to the latest survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (Tifa).
The poll shows that 44 per cent of ODM supporters would back Sifuna as the party’s presidential candidate, placing him well ahead of other political figures considered in the survey.
President William Ruto emerged as the second most preferred candidate among ODM supporters, garnering 20 per cent support despite leading the rival United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i ranked third with nine per cent, while Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka each attracted four per cent support.
The polls also shows Former Chief Justice David Maraga received two per cent backing, while Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua polled one per cent.
Three per cent supported other candidates, while 13 per cent of ODM supporters said they were undecided.
The findings form part of Tifa’s second national survey of 2026, conducted between June 13 and June 22 on 2,048 randomly selected adults across all counties.
“The results are based on household, face-to-face interviews with 2,048 randomly selected Kenyan adults (aged 18 and above) across all 47 counties,” the poll states.
Meanwhile, within the ruling UDA, President Ruto enjoys overwhelming support from his party’s base.
The survey found that 84 per cent of UDA supporters would back him for re-election in 2027.
Kalonzo Musyoka was the second choice among UDA supporters with three per cent, while Sifuna, Matiang’i, Gachagua and other candidates each attracted two per cent support.
Among supporters of Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP, the former Deputy President leads with 44 per cent backing.
Kalonzo follows with 19 per cent, while Matiang’i secures 15 per cent support, indicating a more divided preference within the party’s support base.
The poll also found strong support for Matiang’i among Jubilee Party supporters, with 73 per cent identifying him as their preferred presidential candidate.
All other contenders registered less than 10 per cent support within the party.
Wiper Patriotic Front recorded the highest level of internal loyalty among the parties surveyed.
According to the poll, 90 per cent of Wiper supporters said they would back party leader Kalonzo Musyoka in the next presidential election.
In its analysis, Tifa said the findings point to varying degrees of party cohesion ahead of the 2027 polls.
“The survey indicates that UDA supporters remain highly consolidated behind President Ruto, while Jubilee supporters have largely rallied behind Matiang’i,” the poll shows.
Wiper also demonstrated strong internal unity, with nine out of every 10 supporters backing Kalonzo as the party’s preferred presidential candidate.
Tifa noted that the survey reflects public opinion at the time the interviews were conducted and acknowledged that political developments occurring during or after the data collection period could influence public attitudes if the same questions were asked today.
The research organisation said the findings nevertheless provide an accurate snapshot of Kenyans’ political preferences during the June survey period.
