Ruto has slight lead in tight race with Raila - poll
The presidential election on August 9 has become a two-horse race with DP William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga running neck to neck.
The latest Radio Africa opinion poll shows Ruto has edged into a slight lead of 43.3 percent against Raila's 42.4 percent when respondents were asked who they preferred as their presidential candidate.
But Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has 4.0 percent support allowing him to play the role of kingmaker and to prevent Raila and Ruto from scoring a first round win. Only Mwangi wa Iria shows up as well with 2.3 percent while Others are 1.9 percent and Undecided 6.1 percent.
Radio Africa's SMS-based survey of 3,559 respondents in all 47 counties carries a 4.5 percent margin of error, which makes it difficult to determine a clear leader.
However in the last year, support for Raila as president has gone up sharply from 20.0 percent in Radio Africa surveys to over 42 percent today while Ruto's support has grown marginally from 39 percent to 43 percent.
Over the last year, government has thrown its weight behind Raila with President Uhuru Kenyatta making increasingly clear his support for Raila and opposition to Deputy President Ruto.
In the 2013 elections, the partnership between Ruto and Uhuru was based on the overt promise that Uhuru would serve two terms as President to be followed by Ruto's two terms as President.
Ruto is still leading Raila in Central Province with 52 percent support compared to 32.2 percent although the gap between them has shrunk from 40 percent to 20 percent in the last six months.
Ruto also leads in North Rift with 68.9 percent compared to 22.6, in South Rift with 51.5 percent compared to 35.1, and in Upper Eastern with 58.6 percent against 27.8.
Elsewhere Raila leads although often the race is very close. At the Coast, Raila has 49.7 percent against 39.1 percent for Ruto; in Lower Eastern, Raila has 37.4 percent against Ruto's 35.2.
In in Nairobi, Raila has 53.4 percent against 34.3 for Ruto; in North Eastern, Raila has 46.6 percent against 40.4; in Western Raila leads by 44.8 percent to 38.8; and in Nyanza he holds a commanding lead of 69.6 percent against Ruto's 17.17 percent.
There are still substantial movements in voter preferences so the next four weeks will be critical.
In Western, the Musalia-Wetang'ula alliance seems to have dented Raila's traditional support base. Ruto has consolidated South Rift while Raila has gained Lower Eastern and North Eastern, both heavily contested swing areas. Raila has also consolidated Nairobi.
Meanwhile Kalonzo has significant 17.1 percent support in Lower Eastern.
The fluidity of the race is emphasised not only by the 6.1 percent who say they are undecided but also by the 28.0 percent who say they may not vote, of which 5.1 percent say they will 'probably' not vote and 5.8 percent that they 'definitely' will not vote.
If those citizens could be inspired to vote, it would be enough to win the election for either Raila or Ruto.
The most pressing issue facing voters is the high cost of living, according to 62.3 percent of respondents followed by unemployment (16.3 percent); corruption 11.0; poverty 2.7; food insecurity 2.1; poor health care 2.0 and others 3.5 percent. BY THE STAR
.jpg)
Post a Comment