Why there are signs Raila will run in 2022
ODM chief Raila Odinga has given strong indications that his eyes are firmly trained on the presidency and he is going flat out to win Kenya's most coveted vote bank.
Over the last two weeks, the former Prime Minister has left no doubt that he is gathering his arsenal for the top job, this time determined to inherit President Uhuru Kenyatta's Mt Kenya backyard.
On Thursday Raila was hosted at the sacred Kikuyu shrine with the Kikuyu Council of Elders, offering symbolic prayers for the ODM boss while facing Mt Kenya.
Raila met the elders and Githurai traders at the council's headquarters along Limuru Road in Nairobi.
Speaking to the group, the former PM trashed claims that he is unwanted in Central Kenya.
"Those who say Kikuyus don't like Raila, I don't know where they are getting that from," Raila said. "I will climb the mountain, Matiba (late veteran politician Kenneth Matiba) taught me how to climb the mountain."
He revealed that he will storm the region in a series of visits starting from Githurai, an area he described as the gateway to Kikuyuland.
This is the first time in decades the elders are offering the prayers to a leader outside their community in what is seen as a calculated move to prepare the ground for a Raila candidature.
At the meeting were MPs Paul Koinange (Kiambaa), Jeremiah Kioni (Ndaragwa), former Dagoretti North MP Dennis Waweru and Education Chief Administrative Secretary Zack Kinuthia.
ODM MPs and a section of Uhuru’s confidants are said to be quietly pushing that the President should now personally take Raila to the people to end the uncertainty in the region.
“We know that the apparent confusion in Mount Kenya is because the President has not openly stated what direction we should follow. One he does that everyone will toe the line,” a Mt Kenya MP who did not want to be quoted told the Star.
The Thursday meeting was the third in a week by groups from Central Kenya.
On Monday, the opposition chief hosted tens of youths coalescing under “Team One Nation” led by ex-Mungiki leader Maina Njenga at his Karen residence.
The group resolved to join Raila in a series of BBI rallies in Uhuru’s Mt Kenya backyard.
Two days later – on Wednesday – Raila had another meeting with 800 Jubilee and ODM youths drawn from Nairobi.
However, it was during the meeting with the youth when Raila said he would work with Uhuru in the 2022 presidential run.
He said he has the solutions to the problems bedevilling the country including corruption, high cost of living and high public debt.
“We have a solution to all these problems. It is because of the desired change that we have brought the BBI to provide the stability needed to tackle these challenges,” Raila said.
Seemingly buoyed by the President’s remarks that the presidency is not a preserve of two communities, Raila appears to be an all-out war to counter Deputy President William Ruto.
On December 29, Raila held meetings with Coast ODM leaders in a bid to consolidate the restive region that is under attack from Ruto.
Raila says Ruto is at the centre of Jubilee failures and has nothing new to offer to Kenyans.
On Wednesday, Raila chided Ruto over a plethora of failed Jubilee promises, including laptops for class one pupils; nine stadiums; and one million jobs for Kenyans.
“Weren’t we promised jobs and that modern sport complexes will be built in all the 47 counties? Like a warthog, he has forgotten and is now claiming he wants to help the common man with wheelbarrows and handcarts,” Raila stated.
“We took this path with Uhuru because the President himself has conceded he had taken the wrong path…It was for this reason that we said we come together and look for a way to salvage the problem. We want a new Kenya, which will only be possible if the BBI is voted for by Kenyans.”
At the Ufungamano House meeting on Wednesday, the ODM boss promised a tour of Machakos, Mombasa, Lamu, Lodwar, Migori, Kinangop, Nyeri, Mandera, Moyale, and Eldoret.
The ODM leader also came close to disclosing policies that are likely to define his message or campaigns for the fifth stab at the top seat.
We have a solution to all these problems. It is because of the desired change that we have brought the BBI to provide the stability needed to tackle these challengesODM leader Raila Odinga
From his sentiments, the ODM boss seeks to cater to the youth, women, and elderly persons’ needs – some of which form part of the BBI goodies.
He appears to be building his message around providing cash transfers for the elderly; healthcare for all – whether one has money or not; and goodies for youths.
Dennis Waweru said backing Ruto for another ten years would mean two communities will have led for over 68 years before others take up the mantle.
“It is about time we looked elsewhere because all are Kenyans and we have equal right to be in leadership,” he said.
Nominated MP Maina Kamanda also argues that Raila is best-placed to lead since “he has a big heart and has the best interest of Kenyans in his plans”.
“Raila has shown us his gratitude in the past when he nominated Rachel Shebesh, Margaret Wanjiru and Isaac Mwaura only for the lot to betray him.”
The ODM leader is also positioning his message around gender equality and what he termed as ‘meaningful jobs for young people.’
“We want our youths to get meaningful jobs after they finish school, not to go quarrying and pushing wheelbarrows.”
“We are bidding for the women to equally get job opportunities and political leadership like everyone else,” he said.
Raila is equally banking on the BBI success saying it would help install or put in place ‘the most accountable government’.
“When we ran the coalition government with Mwai Kibaki (former President), work was being done efficiently and fast.
“We curbed corruption to a great extent at that time. What worked for the coalition was because we set the roles well,” he said.
The BBI is proposing the post of Prime Minister and two deputies as well as post of leader of official opposition.
From the goings-on and the President dismissing his dynasty polity, observers conclude that a Raila versus Ruto duel could be in the offing ahead of 2022.
Prof Olang Sana of Maseno University says it would be a surprise if the ODM leader would not contest the presidency in 2022.
He holds that the best bet for Raila in politics, however, is to indicate that he has interest in vying.
The Development Studies don said that going by past events, nothing can stop the ODM leader from vying.
“I think he will run. The question is, would he capture the presidency?” Prof Olang asked.
Political Analyst Martin Andati said Raila is sending mixed signals, hence one cannot be sure he will run or not.
His take is that even if Raila were not to run, he cannot say it now as that would subject him to risk of losing political bases.
“Remember when there were uncertainties of his candidature, he lost foot soldiers like Aisha Jumwa, Amason Kingi, and the late Suleiman Dori. The moment it looked like Raila was not going to vie in 2022, they started looking at securing their future.”

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