Kalonzo, Musalia tough options for 2022

 

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and ANC boss Musalia Mudavadi are walking a tightrope in the face of their slim and difficult options for 2022.

ODM chief Raila Odinga appears to have won the heart of President Uhuru Kenyatta and is banking on Mt Kenya region — Uhuru’s base — to catapult him to State House, though he has not yet declared.

On the other hand, Deputy President William Ruto has triggered a political storm with his  frenetic activities.

His allies call it an unstoppable ‘Hustler Movement’, a catchy narrative that has caused ripples among his opponents who try to deflate it by calling for 'real development' or say, 'We are all hustlers.'

Kalonzo and Musalia appear to be on their own — individually charting their 2022 political plans.

There are no indications they are reaching out to other camps and questions arise as to how they will forge formidable political movement and mobilise resources to counter the Raila, Ruto whirlwinds.

Analysts have criticised their moves, largely their deliberations with middle-level political figures.

The general view is that unless the two get hold of the bigwigs - Raila, Uhuru or Ruto, their ambitions remain a mirage.

UoN don Herman Manyora observed that 2022 is about Ruto against a team, which he says will include everyone but the DP.

“It will have Kalonzo and the likes. Anybody who is not in that team is going nowhere. So, it is a question of what number you have been given to play. What position? Are you fielded? If yes, then you are part of the team. Are you a striker?”

Manyora told the Star Siasa that Kalonzo and Mudavadi fall into that team, as neither can mount a campaign on their own.

“Only Raila is capable of launching a serious campaign for himself, even when things get bad," the analyst said.

He said in the event Uhuru and Raila stick together, launch a joint campaign, and field the best players as candidates, the rest will take positions within the formation.

“Outside the formation, none of them – Kalonzo and Mudavadi - has a chance,” Manyora said.

Lawyer Danstan Omari said Mudavadi and Kalonzo may not make strides as they appear keen on being endorsed by Uhuru.

He said the two, despite having served as vice presidents, cannot match Ruto, whom he says “was DP for five years with his eyes wide open".

“While the two didn’t know that finances that are critical to mount a presidential campaign, Ruto discovered this very early.

“They remained real hustlers to date, while Ruto remained a hustler by name and dynasty by practice. That is why he can put up a fight with the dynasties,” Omari said.

He said Kalonzo also may not go far since it was former Senator Johnson Muthama who had been bankrolling  him — support he says only enabled the former vice president play second fiddle.

Muthama now backs Ruto and says he 'vomited' Wiper.

Omari said Mudavadi equally faces an uphill task including in his Western backyard, “where he has been reduced to a spectator".

The lawyer held that Cotu secretary general Francis Atwoli, who is not elected, has more clout than the ANC boss.

“They are just talking. Young people like [Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala] and [Nairobi Senator Johnson] Sakaja have taken over the Luhya nation,” Omari said.

He dismissed the two politicians' capacity to raise billions of shillings to campaign.

“Can they make posters? Hire agents for the whole country? They are just talking. They are in the league of Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua, Makueni's Kivutha Kibwana, KItui's Charity Ngilu and Murang'a’s Mwangi Wa Iria.”

“These are people who want their name to appear in the Star newspaper. Their names will not even be on the ballot. Kalonzo put his name on the ballot and lost miserably. The two horses now are Baba and Hustler, the wheelbarrow man,” Omari said.

Prof Olang Sana of Maseno University’s School of Development and Strategic Studies said Kalonzo and Mudavadi are trying to market themselves for a possible alliance with either the Ruto wing or the Raila wing.

“You cannot build a house and simply say I am building it for an alliance with somebody else. The strategy is to go full throttle and pretend or make assumptions that you want to do it on your own.

“Kalonzo cannot muster substantial support as a presidential candidate, neither can Musalia. The two coalitions are the Ruto wing and the Raila-Uhuru wing.”

Prof Olang added that while it's unclear what or who will emerge from the Uhuru-Raila handshake, they are likely to produce a strong presidential candidate.

“Musalia and Kalonzo cannot be strong candidates. They are just building a name to position themselves for 2022 negotiations,” he said.

Mudavadi on Tuesday held talks with Makueni Governor Kibwana and Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua.

Sources privy to the deliberations said it was centred on 2022 politics and the Amani leader said he’d go for nothing less than the presidency.

He has also toured parts of Central as well as Kajiado to woo the support of Mt Kenya and the Maasai community, respectively.

Kalonzo, who is also insisting on the top seat, has maintained his activities within Wiper circles.

Notable names in his camp are former National Assembly deputy speaker Farah Maalim and former Cabinet Minister Chirau Ali Mwakwere. 

Ahead of the 2017 campaigns, the Wiper leader had a comfortable hold on his bastion that even those who were not in his party associated with his activities.

His whirlwind tours of the Coast had more Wiper MPs than others, revealing the extent to which the tide may have changed.

Kalonzo opened offices in Mombasa and Wundanyi and introduced a candidate for the Msambweni MP by-election.

Governor  Mutua, Kitui’s Ngilu and Makueni’s Kibwana have been charting a different political course.

A number of Jubilee MPs who would have given Wiper a boost to control the Lower Eastern vote have joined Ruto.

Mwala MP Vincent Musyoka, Machakos Town’s Victor Munyaka Kitui East’s Nimrod Mbai and Kangundo MP Fabian Muli of the Muungano Party are backing the Deputy President.

They said they have unsuccessfully tried to push the former  vice president to team up with Ruto in 2022.

But Kalonzo, through his spokesman Dennis Kavisu, said he doesn’t need to bring people on board before consolidating his political base.

Kavisu dismissed assertions the former VP has tough options in setting u p a winning matrix.

“We have better options. We are taking this thing. You create a movement and then people follow. We have been relaxing but we are now out there," he said.

“You saw the reception we got in Mombasa, Kwale and Wundanyi. We are consolidating our base, strategy and structure.”

“People will be walking in. We are going for the presidency. We are past the issue of endorsement,” Kavisu said.