As Mercy Korir walks through her maize farm in Uasin Gishu, she worries about what lies ahead.
“This is going to be a bad season,” she says.
The crop that normally provides her family with between 50 and 100 bags of maize is struggling. She now expects to harvest fewer than 50 bags.
With maize serving as her main source of income, the poor harvest means she may have to find other ways to meet her family’s expenses as drought takes a toll on production.
“I get worried when I visit my maize farm because, with the way the maize is, my harvest this season will be low,” she says.
Drought and poor rainfall have affected production in key farming regions, pushing up the prices of some staple foods.
According to the Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) July Food Security Monitor, maize prices in Kenya rose by 3.3 per cent in July, while bean prices increased by between 2.4 and 2.9 per cent as domestic supplies tightened. Rice prices also edged up by 0.3 per cent.
Wheat prices fell by 1.5 per cent following improved import availability and harvest supplies.
Timothy Njagi, a food security expert at the Africa Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes (ANAPRI), says harvesting in parts of the Central Highlands, Nyanza and Western Kenya begins as early as July and runs through September.
Many farmers in Western Kenya also harvest early to sell green maize for roasting or boiling when prices are favourable.
In the Rift Valley, the country’s main maize-producing region, the main harvest begins in October or November and runs into January of the following year.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture’s Kenya Agricultural Market Information System (KAMIS), a 90kg bag of dry maize is currently wholesaling at between Sh2,200 and Sh4,500. A bag of beans is selling for between Sh5,000 and Sh5,600, depending on the variety.
A bag of finger millet (wimbi) is fetching about Sh11,700, while a bag of green grams (ndengu) is selling for around Sh7,000.
Irish potatoes, particularly the Shangi variety, are averaging Sh4,600 per bag, although prices vary depending on the size of the sack, which typically ranges from 50kg to 110kg.
The price increases come as prolonged dry conditions continue to affect agricultural production in several parts of the country.
In Baringo county, drought has destroyed an estimated 75 per cent of the expected maize harvest, with losses reaching up to 80 per cent in some lowland areas.
The situation is expected to further strain national grain supplies, with the government planning to import 25 million 90kg bags of maize to bridge an anticipated production deficit.
Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe said the government had already made arrangements for the imports, assuring Kenyans that measures were in place to prevent a food shortage.
“Kenya consumes approximately 75 million bags of maize annually. However, reduced harvests in several food-producing regions are expected to create a shortfall of nearly 25 million bags, prompting the government to intervene through strategic imports to stabilise supplies and protect consumers from potential price fluctuations,” Kagwe said.
“We will import maize. We have already made arrangements for that. We will manage the country. The country is not going to go hungry,” he added.
A miller, who did not want to be named, said rising maize prices and tightening supplies could eventually push up the cost of maize flour if the situation persists.
“Farmers are already reporting an expected low harvest, which could affect the availability of locally produced maize and drive up its price. This could, in turn, lead to an increase in the cost of maize flour in supermarkets,” the miller said.
“I urge the government to take action and import maize to cushion Kenyans from higher prices, especially at a time when many households have low purchasing power because of the high cost of living.”
Kagwe said the maize imports would provide an immediate buffer while longer-term measures are implemented to strengthen domestic production and reduce reliance on rain-fed agriculture.
He said the government was expanding irrigation projects, including the Galana Kulalu scheme, to boost production and build resilience to drought.
“The government also plans to work with the National Treasury to address taxes and bureaucratic challenges affecting farmers and agribusinesses,” he added.
The AGRA report warns that Kenya’s food security outlook remains mixed through January 2027.
Maize production in key grain-producing areas of the North Rift and Western Kenya is expected to remain substantially below average because of prolonged rainfall deficits, with losses of about 15 per cent projected.
The report says improved rainfall and expected harvests could bring localised relief later in 2026, but recovery is likely to remain constrained by below-average production and high food prices.
