ASML says it may not achieve 2026 growth as chipmakers face US tariff uncertainty

ASML (ASML.AS), opens new tab, the world’s biggest supplier of computer chip-making equipment, warned on Wednesday that it may not achieve growth in 2026 as chipmakers building factories in the U.S. await clarity on how hard tariffs will impact them.

The uncertainty in tariff negotiations is spurring chipmakers in the U.S. to delay finalizing investments, CFO Roger Dassen told journalists on a media call.

Shares in ASML fell as much as 7.8% and were on track for their worst day since October, dragging peers ASM (ASMI.AS), opens new tab, BESI (BESI.AS), opens new tab, Soitec (SOIT.PA), opens new tab lower as well.

A potential 30% U.S. tariff on European goods could ramp up the price of a single high-end machine to 325 million euros from 250 million euros, he noted.

“Clarity is what customers are looking for before they can really finalize their views as to what they’re going to do,” Dassen said, reiterating ASML’s intention to pass such costs on.

Beyond a simple tax on a finished machine, the tariffs may pile up for ASML as parts are sent from the Netherlands to the U.S. several times.

Analysts had hoped that the quarter would provide some reassurance over its outlook for 2026, but the company warned that geopolitical uncertainty still clouded its prospects.

“The level of uncertainty is increasing, mostly due to macroeconomic and geopolitical consideration. And that includes, of course, tariffs,” ASML’s Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said in an internal interview on the company’s website.

The direct and indirect impact of tariffs was still very uncertain, CFO Roger Dassen said in the interview, and ASML was working with its supply chain to mitigate any impact.

“While we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage,” Fouquet said in a statement.

If it materialized, 2026 would be the first flat year in over a decade of uninterrupted revenue growth since 2012.

ASML investor Han Dieperink, chief investment officer at investment firm Aureus, said he was not worried about the upcoming year, noting that the quarter pointed to solid demand.

The Dutch group’s net bookings, the most closely watched figure in the industry, were 5.54 billion euros ($6.4 billion), 25% ahead of analysts’ consensus estimate of 4.44 billion euros, according to researcher Visible Alpha.

ASML’s EUV lithography machines represented 42% of those bookings, or 2.3 billion euros’ worth.

The machines, which are the world’s most advanced chip circuit printing system, are the key enabling technology behind leading-edge chips like those used in Nvidia’s (NVDA.O), opens new tab GPUs, or Apple’s (AAPL.O), opens new tab Macs and iPhones.

“The second quarter beats from top to bottom,” analyst Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam said. Roeg cited strong demand from artificial intelligence related chipmakers.

Chinese demand also remained elevated, representing 27% of all machine sales in the last three quarters, and confirming the country’s chipmakers have continued to buy less advanced machines in anticipation for more U.S.-led export restrictions.

($1 = 0.8608 euros)