The Raila Odinga-led Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has said its talks with the ruling Jubilee Party will go on despite the latter’s poor performance in recent by-elections.
To the party challengers, the recent losses in Kiambaa, Bonchari and Juja by-elections has debunked the myth that the President Uhuru Kenyatta-led party is still enjoying unwavering support across the country.
Out of 11 by-elections that have been conducted by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) from 2018 to date, the ruling party has won three: Wajir West, Baringo South and Garissa. It has abstained in Msambweni, Machakos, Matungu and Kabuchai and lost four: Kibra, Bonchari, Juja and Kiambaa.
Yesterday, ODM national chairman John Mbadi who is also Suba South MP, dismissed claims that the recent Jubilee Party loss to Deputy President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate John Njuguna Wanjiku in Kiambaa will complicate the ongoing talks.Mr Mbadi, who is part of the team driving the Jubilee-ODM coalition talks to field a single presidential candidate in the 2022 General Election, told the Sunday Nation that the talks will proceed.
He said ODM is not fully banking on the entire support-base of the Jubilee Party across the country but just a fraction of what was in their basket during the last elections.“We do not want the entire number. We just want the numbers which they have at the moment to combine with ours.
We did not have those numbers before,” said Mr Mbadi.
Man to watch
He said Dr Ruto’s recent wins in the vote-rich Mount Kenya should not be construed to mean the country’s second in command is now the man to watch in the region, which voted overwhelmingly for Jubilee both 2013 and 2017.
“It is Juja where they lost badly but they still got numbers that will come into our basket. Muguga they won, even though by a small margin. In Kiambaa, they lost with a small margin, so it is interesting to say that Ruto now controls Mount Kenya. That is not what we call controlling a region,” he said.
Mr Mbadi noted that for Mr Odinga to clinch the presidency in 2022, all votes remain important, so the talks with Jubilee will not stop because of the performance in mini-polls.“ODM has its numbers. So if we get numbers from Jubilee whether it is a half, quarter or a third, it does not matter. It will increase our numbers,” he said.
The Suba South MP went on: “If Ruto and Uhuru were in Jubilee together and they competed with us, the moment Ruto goes away and Uhuru goes away, whatever the number Uhuru is coming within the coalition with ODM is an addition. Ruto is not adding on his side, unless he gets numbers from our side. ”He said the public will not be privy to the nitty-gritty details of the talks.
“Where we are currently in our talks, we will not give out information pertaining to what Jubilee is giving and ODM too. If we start sharing the details at the moment it will jeopardise our talks,” Mr Mbadi elucidated.This comes a week after Mr Odinga said the ongoing coalition talks between his party and that of President Kenyatta is a preparation for next year’s epic duel.
“Jubilee-ODM talks are just preparations because the two parties have players, therefore, you cannot just tell them to sit back until the right time. It is important to start warming up as early as now, so that we know how 2022 will be handled. Whether we will go as ODM or a coalition and how it will be,” said Mr Odinga.
Five negotiators will represent each party while the respective Jubilee and ODM executive directors will be the joint secretaries. Jubilee will be represented in the talks by Vice-chairman David Murathe, Secretary-general Raphael Tuju, National Assembly Majority Whip Emmanuel Wangwe, Igembe North MP Maoka Maore and Samburu West MP Naisula Lesuuda.
On the ODM side will be Mr Mbadi, Secretary-general Edwin Sifuna, National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohamed, nominated Senator Agnes Zani and Kisii Woman Representative Janet Ong’era.
Improvement
Even though Jubilee lost in Kiambaa, its performance was an improvement from last May’s Juja by-election where it lost to the little known People’s Empowerment Party, which is linked to Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria.University of Nairobi lecturer and political analyst Prof XN Iraki said that the ruling party is not yet dead but is suffering from what he termed as “cognitive dissonance”.
“It cannot see the reality on the ground, I hope the defeat jolted it to reality. My fears are that its members will start bolting as 2022 approaches,” said Prof Iraki, adding that only the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) was giving the party life.
Jubilee’s Kieleweke team is sending a message to their rivals that it is not yet over and their support remains intact as they fulfil the pledges they made to Kenyans during the 2017 electioneering period.
“I do not think there is a feeling Jubilee is losing grip on its strongholds or support base. Our stronghold remains Kenya as a whole… people need to know that democracy is give and take,” said Mr Wangwe, who is also the Navakholo MP.
Familiar pathBut political analyst and governance expert Javas Bigambo argues that the ruling Jubilee Party seems to be following the familiar path of the Democratic Party and Party of National Unity (PNU).
“If history is to serve any meaningful lessons on the cycle of political parties in Kenya, it is that the ultimate death of the Jubilee Party is imminent. It is only President Kenyatta’s incumbency that is preventing the party from the real death and cremation,” he said.
He added: “The direction of Mount Kenya’s new political magnet Moses Kuria is a dependable affirmation that even political leaders from the region are not seeing the future of the Jubilee Party in the region after the end of President Kenyatta’s second term. It is therefore safe to assert that the Jubilee Party is suffering from the late stages of a very terminal illness.” BY DAILY NATION
