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Is Kenya past second wave? Experts remain cautious

 

Experts are cautiously optimistic that Kenya has already reached the peak of its second wave of coronavirus infection.

Analyses of the daily incidence reported by the Ministry of Health show a sustained negative growth rate in new cases. Different experts said this may mean the country is already past the worst.

On Thursday, Health CS Mutahi Kagwe reported 780 new cases, from 6,158 people tested. This brought to 80,102 the number of people who have tested positive since March.

Kagwe said 552 of the patients recovered, bringing total recoveries to 53,526. He said 10 patients died of the disease, bringing the death toll to 1,427 since the virus was reported.

Epidemiologist Nelly Yatich expressed optimism the trend will continue downwards.

"I'm cautiously optimistic that the trend will continue downwards. People are taking more precautions than before the start of the second wave. Super spreader events like political rallies have also reduced significantly. Let’s hope the numbers reduce further before schools re-open,” Dr Yatich said.

Pathologist Ahmed Kalebi said aggregated weekly data showed new cases and deaths peaked three weeks ago.

"In addition, the curves of biweekly change in confirmed new Covid-19 cases and deaths also show a sustained negative growth rate which further suggests we have probably gone over the crest of the second wave which has had a higher peak than the first wave but now waning,” Dr Kalebi said.

However, public health specialist Richard Ayah termed it too early to say Kenya has turned a corner. Dr Ayah said the decision depends on adequate testing. He said the case detection rate gives a rough idea if there is enough testing going on.

“Below five per cent is the benchmark to consider that infection rates are going down. In Kenya, for November, the case detection rate is 14 per cent, the highest monthly level since March. This suggests that infection is widespread and increasing,” he said.

In September, the case detection rate dropped below five per cent, but testing levels also dropped to a similar level as of June when the case detection rate was also around five per cent.

“This suggests that it was inadequate testing rather than a drop in infection spread that explains September. We have had a continuous wave since March 2020. And a surge in November 2020,” Dr Ayah said.

In the new cases reported on Thursday, Nairobi led with 273; Kiambu 93; Mombasa 86; Busia 85; Nakuru 40; Turkana 32; Uasin Gishu 20; Kilifi 16; Meru, Kajiado and Kericho 13 each; Kisumu 11; Nandi 10; Taita Taveta nine; Murang’a, Laikipia and Nyeri eight each; and Bomet and Trans Nzoia seven each.

Kwale and Makueni had four each; Machakos and Embu three each; Homa Bay, Elgeyo Marakwet and Tana River two each; Samburu, Baringo, Garissa, Nyamira, Marsabit, Kitui, Isiolo and Siaya had one each.

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