Ruto's headache in forging a formidable 2022 alliance
Deputy President William Ruto is facing a massive headache in forging a formidable alliance to take on his rivals in the 2022 General Election.
He has assiduously and astutely cultivated networks over the years but given his current estrangement and virtual pariah status in government, who wants to be his running mate?
Meantime, the former Eldoret North MP is mounting his own campaign against the push to amend the Constitution, possibly expanding the Executive, and flexing his muscles in the referendum dress rehearsal for 2022.
The fast-changing political dynamics triggered by the Building Bridges Initiative have thrust the DP onto the horns of a dilemma over his running mate.
There were initial indications Ruto would pick his potential deputy from Mt Kenya but the onslaught against him by President Uhuru Kenyatta has frustrated his strategy.
Most influential politicians from the Central region have aligned themselves with the Uhuru faction, including Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru and former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth.
However, former Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mwangi Kiunjuri, who was fired over his association with Ruto, is being touted as the DP's Number Two. On another political ticket, of course, as Ruto has indicated he is willing to decamp from Jubilee when the time is ripe.
Ruto's allies insist the DP's options are wide open when the time comes to pick his running mate.
However, President Kenyatta and his handshake partner, ODM leader Raila Odinga, are trying to lock out Ruto from Western Kenya, another region from which he could seek a partner and alliance.
Powerful Council of Governors chairman and Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya has ganged up with Devolution CS Eugene Wamalwa as Uhuru-Raila ambassadors in Western.
“The DP is not faced with any tough choice, it is too early to rule out anything. At the right time, the DP will make decide on his running mate based on a number of factorsBenjamin Washiali
Cotu secretary generaFrancis Atwoli is also working to diminish Ruto's influence in the region.
The government has rolled out massive projects to revive the sugar industry and write off cane farmers' debts to win the allegiance of residents and deny Ruto a foothold.
If Mt Kenya and Western are 'out', the DP faces tough options in choosing a running mate.
However, Mumias East MP Benjamin Washiali, a Ruto stalwart from Western, told the Star on Thursday that the DP is undaunted and his mind is clear.
“The DP is not faced with any tough choice, it is too early to rule out anything,” he said.
“At the right time, the DP will make decide on his running mate based on a number of factors," the former National Assembly Majority Whip said.
He was also dewhipped over his closeness to the DP and his position handed to Navakholo MP Emmanuel Wangwe, who is also from Western region.
Ruto's discreet efforts to woo influential national figures are said to have failed after some of them rejected his overtures.
The Deputy President has accused powerful bureaucrats and influential state operatives — whom he calls the 'deep state' or 'the system — of scheming to thwart his ambitions.
He has dared them to bring it on, saying he has God and the majority of Kenyans backing what he calls his unstoppable campaign.
But Jubilee vice chairman David Murathe, a Uhuru close ally, has declared Ruto unfit to be President, saying he is tainted by graft scandals and has failed his "probation".
The former Gatanga MP said the DP has been tested and found wanting.
"I have no problem with Ruto's candidature. But I don't think he is the right person to succeed President Uhuru given the way he has behaved as DP," Murathe said in an interview with Citizen TV on Tuesday.
Political analysts say the DP can only threaten the Uhuru-Raila juggernaut if he manages to bag at least two heavyweights.
Uhuru and Raila are pushing for radical constitutional changes, through the BBI report, to reconfigure and expand the governance structure.
The referendum battle is shaping up as a dress rehearsal for 2022.
Ruto's camp says most Kenyans would reject a costly referendum if it aims to expand the Executive, create more positions and increase the bloated the wage bill while they suffer economically.
On Thursday, Tiaty MP William Kamket, a staunch Kanu supporter, said Ruto has no chance of successfully challenging a broad-based force built up by BBI proponents.
“The DP has been vanquished. He is just a paper tiger,” Kamket said.
He said the BBI - when its report is finally presented - would usher in new political arrangements shaping the 2022 General Election.
The DP's efforts to chart his course outside the Jubilee party is fraught with problems as key players shun a pact with him.
They include ANC leader Musalia's Mudavadi, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Ford Kenya boss Senators Moses Wetang'ula.
A few weeks ago, the ANC ejected secretary general Barrack Muluka over allegations he was scheming to deliver the former vice president to Ruto's camp, as his running mate.
Its National Executive Council accused Muluka of working against the party's interests to field Musalia as its presidential flagbearer.
ANC leaders say Musalia will not work with Ruto. ANC deputy party leader and Lugari MP Ayub Savula told the Star the party's parliamentary group and NEC resolved to "disassociate from Ruto 100 per cent" and his Tangatanga brigade.
Kalonzo has signed a cooperation agreement with the Jubilee Party and is keen to elevate the pact into a pre-2022 coalition deal.
Kalonzo has accused his former ally and party financier, Johnson Muthama, of plotting to force Wiper into a deal with Ruto. Kalonzo said he is running for President and won't play second fiddle to anyone.
“I am not ready to be Ruto’s running mate," he told Muthama in their falling out.
The Constitution bars Ruto from being Deputy President for more than two terms, complicating his alliance-building efforts.
Those who would join him must be ready to sacrifice their presidential ambitions and back his bid.
The leadership wrangles that recently rocked Ford Kenya are said to have been linked to an aborted plan to have the party enter into a pact with Ruto's camp.
Tongaren MP Eseli Simiyu, a pillar of the Ford Kenya party that tried and failed to remove Wetang'ula, said some officials allegedly wanted to work with Ruto.
“After we realised the party was being hijacked and delivered to Ruto, members stood up against such a plan. The party has no plans to work with Ruto,” the party secretary general said.
As the major political players align themselves with the Uhuru-Raila BBI push, analysts say Ruto will remain isolated.
His situation is worsened because in his Rift Valley backyard — where he once was undisputed kingpin — he is challenged by his nemesis, Baringo Senator and Kanu chairman Gideon Moi.
Gideon, the scion President Daniel Moi, has signed a coalition agreement with the Jubilee Party and is consulted on government affairs.
The pact established Gideon as a principle player in the Uhuru 2022 succession matrix.
Felix Odhiambo said the DP's "journey to State House is hilly and rough. He is fighting multiple fights."
Ruto's opposition to amending the Constitution could “numb his 2022 chances," he said.
“The tide would be too strong to challenge. The DP is walking a tightrope and how he navigates the hurdles ahead will determine his fate,” Odhiambo said.
Ruto had been considered Uhuru's automatic heir apparent after 2017, however, the President's handshake with Raila on March 9, 2018, appears to have virtually extinguished him as a political force.
Since then, the DP has been forced to fight multiple battles as the President's men have trained their guns on him.
He has been boxed out of the centre of state power and relegated to the periphery as a mere spectator in a government he helped form.
Uhuru's allies vanquished him in the Jubilee Party and kicked out all his allies from key leadership positions in Parliament.
Despite these challenges, the DP has rolled out a formidable campaign strategy to empower women and youth who feel and are marginalised. He has issued equipment - from sewing machines to agricultural tools - to groups across Nairobi, Kajiado and Mombasa.
The programme will be expanded countrywide.
Ruto also is wooing clerics and he may well need divine intervention.
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