How burnt bridges complicate Raila's 2022 power strategy

ODM leader Raila Odinga's falling out with past key political allies could hurt his plans to build a fresh alliance for the 2022 presidential contest.

Raila ran in 2007, 2013 and 2017 by putting together teams of political bigwigs, but each of those races ended in controversial defeats.

The former prime minister has severed links with ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi, Wiper's Kalonzo Musyoka and Ford Kenya boss Moses Wetangula who backed him in the last two elections.

The bad blood between the ODM leader and estranged partners is a headache he has to deal with ahead of 2022. 

His lieutenants' attacks on his ex-partners in the Nasa coalition have widened the rifts, making chances of a possible reunion slim.

But Raila seems more focussed on inheriting President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Central vote basket. His brother Oburu Odinga has said this is the “system” to make it to State House.

This strategy could backfire is the handshake with the President collapses.

The ODM boss seems to be courting new friends among them former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth — who is fighting to inherit Uhuru’s Mount Kenya base.

Raila also enjoys close relationship with Devolution CS Eugene Wamalwa and Cotu secretary general Francis Atwoli. 

Eugene and Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, both backed by Atwoli, are marketing themselves as the de facto Luhya leaders.

The 2017 Nasa team has disintegrated, with Kalonzo announcing his exit as he pursues a coalition pact with Jubilee. He inked a cooperation agreement with the ruling party in June.

Moreover, Mudavadi and Wetang’ula have accused Raila of sponsoring coups in their respective parties to extinguish them politically. 

On Wednesday, former Cabinet minister and ex-ODM National Elections Board chair, Franklin Bett, warned that things might backfire for Raila ahead of 2022.

Bett cautioned the ODM leader against banking his 2022 hopes on Mt Kenya. The community is yet to redeem its history of political betrayal, he said. 

“Raila needs to tread carefully. He has burnt bridges that could haunt him in 2022. He should be careful lest he find himself standing alone,” Bett said.

But Raila’s allies maintain that a day in politics in a long time.

ODM chair John Mbadi said Raila will form alliances including surprise ones ahead of the 2022 general elections.

“You can never rule out any alliance with anybody whether Kalonzo, Musalia or whoever. It is too early to talk about 2022. What we are doing is that we want to build ODM then move to making coalitions as we approach 2022,” the National Assembly Minority Leader said.

He said what presidential hopefuls are doing now is taking strategic positions so that they can negotiate properly.

However, critics have warned that some of Raila's lieutenants could further complicate his bid to craft a 2022 winning team.

Firebrand ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna has been hurling jibes at ex-partners, action analysts say could threaten the possibility of any reunion.

ANC deputy party leader and Lugari MP Ayub Savula warned that Sifuna was working for the downfall of Raila through “insults” directed at Nasa partners.

“You know politics is dynamic, things will change in future but we just want to ask Tinga to tame Sifuna because Sifuna is spoiling for him. He is not working for the interest of Nasa coalition or ODM,” Savula said.

He added, “By abusing Kalonzo and Musalia on any issue instead of handling the issue through the Nasa Coalition structures, he is working for the downfall of Raila and that is a fact. Kalonzo is not Sifuna’s equal.”

Wiper’s Executive Director Jared Siso – a close Kalonzo confidant – said Raila’s situation has been worsened by Sifuna.

Siso accused the SG of doing a disservice to the ODM leader through his open disrespect to other coalition partners.

“I think he doesn’t understand his brief as secretary general or he is simply a loose cannon who is excited of his position,” Siso said.

He added, “What he is definitely doing is complicating anything about coalition negotiation because much of these sentiments can be construed to mean they are coming from Raila but he is really doing a lot of disservice to Baba.”

Sifuna has emerged as ODM's political attack dog. 

When Kalonzo claimed last week that he has a secret pact with Raila for the 2022 polls, Sifuna accused the Wiper leader of furthering his “two-faced treacherous character that of always whining while seeking to reap where he did not sow”.

“It is a continuation of his kati kati brand of politics. Kalonzo has indeed been variously described as a hyena who follows a man hoping the hands will fall,” Sifuna said.

But Mbadi said Sifuna's statements must not be construed to mean that the party has taken a particular position on any matter.

“Party policies and positions are stated by the party leader. No single person can decide the direction ODM will take. What Sifuna was saying was to clarify,” Mbadi said.

On Monday, Sifuna alleged that the Wiper party had plotted a coup against Raila's handshake deal with Jubilee.

“Everything that Kalonzo and Wiper do is meant to undermine ODM. That is their modus operandi,” Sifuna said.

In June following Musalia's criticism of Cotu Secretary general Francis Atwoli's meetings, Sifuna called him “a hyena whose interest is to fend for himself”.

“As usual, Mudavadi prefers to be the hyena that follows a man, hoping his hands will fall. The same way he sat pretty as Atwoli organised everything to make him the 'Luhya Spokesman', which gave him his current political profile, is the exact way Atwoli would push the same resources and clout behind more capable people,” he said.

On Wednesday, Wiper vice chairman Victor Swanya said that the only way Raila would change the narrative of betraying his compatriots is by backing Kalonzo in 2022.

“It would be important if the former prime minister and President Uhuru took over this great opportunity and rallied behind Kalonzo that would bring any betrayal narrative to an end,” he said.

Political analyst Joseph Mutua told the Star that Raila’s fallout with his once political buddies might weigh in on his 2022 chances.

He said the exit of his co-principals might deny him a critical constituency to support his bid.

“If they desert him, I see a situation where Raila will likely not run and throw his weight behind one of them because if he runs he will lose. I don’t know where he will get his running mate because those are politicians Kenyans know,” Mutua said.

He added, “He cannot go to a lightweight, these small politicians will make him lose and I don’t think he wants to go through embarrassment.”

Though Raila has not announced contesting the 2022 presidency, his confidants say he will be among the key candidates to replace President Uhuru.