Economics confrontation tops the 2026 global risks, with aggressive policies by the US President Donald Trump, likely to influence the overall social economics for households across the world – Kenya included, according to a new report.
This is the verdict by the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2026 released on Tuesday, with half of those surveyed anticipating a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years, up 14 percentage points from last year.
According to the report, 18 per cent of 1,300 experts surveyed globally say geo-economics are likely to trigger a material global crisis this year, followed by interstate conflict, extreme weather, societal polarisation, misinformation and disinformation.
The report comes at the time the world is witnessing escalating confrontations by superpowers, including the 25 per cent tariff threat by UD against any country trading with the Islamic state of Iran, currently witnessing protests.
Early this year, the US captured Venezuelan President, Nicolas Maduro, in what experts interpret as Washington’s effort to assert its superpower status and a clear warning to China and Russia who have been courting the oil rich nation.
The US is also targeting Greenland in what is likely to trigger reaction from the European Union, a key North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) ally in support of Denmark which controls the international affairs for the Antarctic nation.
Russia has escalated attacks on Ukraine in recent time while Israel recently hit Damascus, escalating the perennial Middle East conflict pitting the contested Gaza Strip with Palestine. China has also intensified efforts to recapture Taiwan even as the US feuds.
“In a world already weakened by rising rivalries, unstable supply chains and prolonged conflicts at risk of regional spillover, such confrontation carries systemic, deliberate and far-reaching global consequences, increasing state fragility,’’ the report by WEF reads.
The report further shows that declining trust, diminishing transparency and respect for the rule of law, along with heightened protectionism, are threatening longstanding international relations, trade and investment and increasing the propensity for conflict.
A further 40 per cent expect the two-year outlook to be unsettled at the very least, while nine per cent expect stability and only a percentage predict calm.
When it comes to the outlook for the next 10 years, 57 per cent expect a turbulent or stormy world, 32 per cent anticipates things to be unsettled, 10 per cent predict stability and only a percentage anticipate calm.
“A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest. This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential,” said Børge Brende, President and CEO, World Economic Forum.
“Our Annual Meeting in Davos will serve as a vital platform for understanding risks and opportunities and for building the bridges needed to address them.”
At the second position is state-based armed conflict, selected by a further 14 per cent of respondents.
“In a world already weakened by rising rivalries, unstable supply chains and prolonged conflicts at risk of regional spillover, such confrontation carries systemic, deliberate and far-reaching global consequences, increasing state fragility.”
Although technological developments and new innovations are driving opportunities, with vast potential benefits from health and education to agriculture and infrastructure, new risks across domains, from labour markets to information integrity to autonomous weapons systems prevails.
According to WEF, Misinformation and disinformation and Cyber insecurity ranked at position two and six, on the two-year outlook.
The report indicates that adverse outcomes of AI is the risk with the largest rise in ranking over time, moving from position 30 on the two-year outlook to position five on the 10-year outlook.
In parallel, misinformation and disinformation also remains a acute global concern.
The report says that as wealth continues to concentrate in the hands of a few, while cost of living pressures remain high, permanently K-shaped economies are becoming a risk, calling the social contract and its financing into question.
Others are environmental concerns, societal polarization, and erosion of human rights, cyber security and inequity.
by VICTOR AMADALA
