The November 27, 2025, by-elections are a barometer that the country will use to gauge the politics of 2027, even as politicians seek to align, strategize and position themselves in various camps.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) gazetted 24 by-elections, including 6 posts for Members of the National Assembly, 1 Senatorial position and 17 for positions of Members of County Assembly.
In the National Assembly and Senatorial posts, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) scooped all 4 positions where they fielded candidates. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), their counterpart in the broad-based government arrangement, also won all three 3 seats where they fielded candidates for MP positions.
In the 17 ward by-elections, UDA won 7 seats, Democratic for the Citizens Party (DCP) won 3, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) won 2, Wiper Patriotic Front won 1, ODM won 1, FORD–Kenya won 1, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won 1 and 1 seat was won by an independent candidate.
In the victories declared by the IEBC, the broad-based partners, UDA and ODM, emerged as the clear winners of the by-elections, boasting of a 66.6% win, after taking 16 out of the 24 positions. The Victory of the broad-based partners has, most certainly, sent the united opposition back to the drawing board with a slow puncher.
While Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP struggled to win 3 MCA seats, DAP-K of Eugene Wamalwa and George Natembeya suffered a major blow, bringing into question the strength of the party within the united opposition. The standing opposition luminary, Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper, and the new entrant on the national stage, former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, both registered significant wins in their respective regions. The performance by Kalonzo and Matiang’i could potentially checkmate the growing hubris and dominance of the former Deputy President in the united opposition camp.
However, questions abound on the meaning of these by-elections to the regional politics of Western Kenya, Mt. Kenya, Nyanza, Rift Valley and Coastal Kenya.
While ODM maintained their strong command of Nyanza and the Coast, it is clear that this victory means much more to Gladys Wanga and Abdulswamad Nassir, who have fought with all their might and strength to cement their leadership within the party that seems to be in the heat of succession politics.
By winning in Magarini, Kasipul and Ugunja, ODM’s ‘experts in government’ – Ali Hassan Joho, John Mbadi, and Opiyo Wandayi can breathe a sigh of relief as the wins in the by-elections might act as their political security in President Ruto’s government.
However, the defeat of an ODM candidate in Kariobangi North brings into question the political strength of Senator Edwin Sifuna, who had been on the ground campaigning for the ODM candidate who lost to a DCP candidate.
Sifuna, who has christened himself as a radical voice within the larger conservative ODM party, might have to consult his political crystal ball, reposition and re-strategize – if the by-elections of Kariobangi North are anything to go by.
While Gachagua has reason to celebrate the 3 MCA positions won by the DCP, the defeat of a DP’s candidate in Mbeere North, where he led the campaigns, brings into question his ability to sway the larger Mt. Kenya vote against President William Ruto and his Deputy Kithure Kindiki.
Gachagua, and not Justin Muturi or Newton Kariuki, has been left with an egg on the face following the narrow yet decisive victory of UDA in Mbeere North. On the other hand, the Deputy President has shown his intellectual muscle and the fiery stuff he is made of by delivering the Mbeere North seat.
Just like Gachagua, Wamalwa’s governor, George Natembeya’s DAP-K formation might have had a false start in shifting the political base of Western Kenya, even as unity within the DAP-K remained a major concern during the Malava by-election.
The win by UDA in Malava is a strong show of President Ruto’s increasing interest in winning over the Western Kenya voting block, with Musalia Musavadi, Francis Atwoli and Farouk Kibet playing a leading role in wooing the region towards supporting the current administration.
With the by-elections in Malava constituency and Kabuchai ward, it is clear that both George Natembeya and the National Assembly speaker, Moses Wetangula, suffered a humiliating defeat in their attempt at demonstrating their political muscles in the Western region.
The defeat of Seth Panyako in Malava is not just a personal defeat for him but a political thunderbolt that has hit Natembeya’s TAWE movement, expressing serious doubt on whether he is able to convert his euphoria into actual votes.
On the other hand, the defeat of FORD –Kenya in Kabuchai has exposed the political underbelly of Wetangula, a reality that the President might have to be confronted with soon, if the larger Western Kenya is still in his interest.
And now, as the UDA and ODM rejoice in the resounding victories across the country, the critical analysis of the voting patterns in these by-elections, and not who won or lost, tells a story that might unfold in full come 2027.
By Guest Writer
