Principal Administrative Secretary in the Office of the President, Arthur Osiya, leads the Busia governor race, according to a new opinion poll.
The survey by IdealMerit Africa puts Osiya, who is seeking the seat on a UDA ticket, at 63.5 per cent, ahead of incumbent Governor Paul Otuoma of ODM, who has 25.9 per cent.
Vincent Sidai of TEP is third with 3.2 per cent, followed by Fredrick Odilo, also of TEP, at 2.9 per cent.
Independent candidate Kizito Wangalwa has 1.1 per cent, while other aspirants account for 1.9 per cent. Another 1.5 per cent of respondents are undecided.
According to the findings released on Wednesday, Osiya leads in six of Busia’s seven constituencies: Nambale, Budalangi, Teso North, Teso South, Matayos and Butula.
The survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 5,280 voters between September 1 and October 9.
IdealMerit reported a 95 per cent confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus 1.34 percentage points.
Chief executive officer Saul Mulungi said the findings showed Osiya had a substantial lead but cautioned that voter preferences could change as campaigns progressed, candidates engaged with the electorate and political dynamics shifted.
“IdealMerit Africa remains committed to providing credible, professionally conducted research that contributes to informed public discourse, a deeper understanding of voter priorities and evidence-based engagement across Kenya’s political and social sectors,” Mulungi said.
The poll offers an early snapshot of the contest, but the figures reflect voter sentiment during the survey period and do not determine the eventual outcome of the 2027 race.
