Consumers could be staring at a potential drop in the prices of sugar in the coming months following Kenya’s formal exit from the COMESA Sugar Safeguard regime, a move that opens up the domestic market to increased duty-free imports from the regional bloc.
The exit allows sugar from COMESA countries to enter Kenya more freely, increasing supply and easing pressure on prices at a time when domestic production is still below national demand.
The Kenya Sugar Board confirmed that the safeguard, which had been in place for 24 years, lapsed on November 30, 2025.
According to the Kenya Sugar Board, the end of the safeguard does not signal vulnerability but confidence that the sector can compete regionally.
The boards CEO Jude Chesire, said that the move marks a shift from protection to competitiveness in the sugar sector.
“This transition reflects strength, not vulnerability. Kenya’s sugar industry is stable, well managed, and supported by clear policy direction. Farmers, millers, workers, and investors are assured that the exit from the safeguard does not expose the sector to disruption, but rather signals readiness to compete within a structured and fair regional market,” said Chesire.
Kenya’s annual sugar demand stands at about 1.1 million metric tons, while local production has risen sharply to 815,454 metric tons, up 76 per cent from 472,773 metric tonnes in 2022.
Despite the gains, the gap means imports will continue to play a key role in stabilising the market and cushioning consumers from shortages and price spikes.
The board says controlled and transparent imports from COMESA and other approved sources will be used to balance supply, ensure food security and maintain price stability for consumers without undermining local farmers and millers.
“The medium-term outlook for the sector remains strong. As miller capacity expands and farm productivity continues to improve, Kenya is projected to not only meet domestic demand but to attain and surpass self-sufficiency in the medium term, positioning the country for surplus production and regional export competitiveness,” added Chesire.
The sector has undergone wide-ranging reforms, including the leasing of former state-owned mills to private operators, expansion of sugarcane acreage by 19.4 per cent, and a shift towards value addition such as ethanol production and power generation. These measures are expected to lower production costs over time and support more competitive pricing.
The board says Population growth continues to drive demand, while surplus availability within the COMESA region is not always predictable.
Importation from both COMESA and non-COMESA origins will therefore be applied in a controlled and transparent manner to ensure price stability for consumers, market certainty for producers, and overall food security, without undermining local production.
by JACKTONE LAWI
